The government estimates that improved export governance could potentially generate an additional Rp 2,653 trillion in annual state revenue.
While the figure still requires detailed verification, it demonstrates the administration’s confidence in reforming commodity trade governance.
Strengthening Economic Sovereignty
Supporters of the policy argue that Indonesia deserves stronger bargaining power in global commodity markets.
Despite being one of the largest producers of coal and palm oil, Indonesia still lacks significant influence over global pricing mechanisms.
International trading firms currently dominate logistics, financing, insurance, and access to overseas buyers.
Indonesia often functions merely as a supplier of raw materials, while foreign companies capture most of the trade profits.
By centralizing exports through a state-owned institution, the government hopes to monitor export pricing more effectively, ensure foreign exchange earnings return to Indonesia, and reduce opportunities for price manipulation.
The policy also aligns with Indonesia’s broader downstream industrialization strategy. Similar to the nickel export ban policy, the government wants more raw materials processed domestically to create higher-value industries inside the country.
In this context, the Export SOE is not only a trading institution but also a strategic industrial policy tool.
Concerns Over Monopoly and Inefficiency
Despite the government’s optimism, critics fear the new agency could evolve into a powerful monopoly or “super broker” controlling commodity exports worth billions of dollars.
Indonesia’s history provides several examples where centralized commodity trade systems led to corruption, rent-seeking, permit manipulation, and market distortions.
Concentrating enormous economic power within one institution may increase the risk of inefficiency and political interference.
Global commodity markets move rapidly and require flexibility, fast logistics, and competitive pricing. International buyers demand quick contract negotiations and reliable delivery systems.
If export procedures become heavily bureaucratic, Indonesia could lose competitiveness in the global market.